Market Updates provides insight on how the financial markets perform and the impact it may have on your investment planning.
Last February we correctly estimated that the Dow Jones Industrial Average was severely undervalued and posted our forecast that the Dow would surge to about 31,451 by February 28, 2021. This year, February 28 fell on a Sunday and the next day, March 1st, the Dow Jones Industrial Average finished at 31,535. We don’t always get …
Our latest assessment of the 1 year and 3 to 5-year potential return for the Dow Jones Industrial Average: (click the picture to see in high resolution) The 1-year price target is calculated by simply uploading the current Wall Street price target for each company’s stock. The price target is the median target that supplied …
We have and continue to be long-term investors with an eye on where we think stock prices could be in 12 to 18 months, but during the COVID Crash of 2020 (can I call it that?), we felt it best to add a short-term timing element to our investment processes. After an exhaustive search of …
When it comes to investing, stock returns tend to be correlated to the fastest growing companies. With this in mind, we have posted the current list of the fastest growing companies by revenue. We try to limit the list to U.S. based companies and we screen for companies that in our view have reasonably good …
Fast Growing U.S. Companies
(Ranked by Sales Growth) Read More »
We are living in the era of the lowest interest rates in recent history. Not since the 1950’s have interest rates been so low. Investing for income has become a challenge for many so we thought we would demonstrate a tool that we use to help us find attractive companies with high dividends. Back in …
I have had a lot of questions lately about what is going on with GameStop and what is causing the stock to catapult from 20 to 50 to 300 to 450. Clients have sent me articles that try to explain the situation as some type of coordinated attack by investors on Twitter or Reddit. In …
We’ve had several requests for our thoughts on the market and how the upcoming election, the President’s health, Covid spread, a Covid cure, China trade tensions and a potentially contested election may impact the markets. Here are our thoughts. Let’s start with the picture above. Let’s say, you’ve just finished dinner, you’re walking on the …
Nearly everyone has heard the old saying, “Buy low and sell high” but I believe that nugget of “wisdom” has caused investors a great deal of pain over the years and so does Bill O’Neil, author of “How to Make Money in Stocks” and publisher of Investor’s Business Daily. (source quote) In this note, I …
I believe the Pandemic of 2020 will go down in history as a first ever economic event in the sense that our economy was intentionally stopped, massively stimulated and hopefully restarted all in less than 6 months. It’s like we have the Stock Market Crash of 1929, the Great Depression and the Victory of World …
A Surprising Investing Lesson from the Great Depression Read More »
One of the tools that we find helpful is a short-term indicator that reflects protective put option positions of large commercial hedgers in the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 and DJIA futures. Put options are instruments used to help hedge against declines in stock values. Commercial hedgers are large institutions that are generally regarded as the …
I really don’t like writing updates like this but I feel like it is an efficient way for me to give you a thoughtful update without me having 100 similar conversations in a day or two. This brief will give you some essential information and I certainly welcome your call if you have additional questions. …
February 28, 2020 The US stock market has fallen rapidly in response to investors seeking to reduce risk in the face of the uncertainty of the Coronavirus. Bear in mind that as much at 80% or more of trading activity is done by machines, according to JP Morgan. Computers today read news headlines and literally …
Over the last 12 months, investors have continued to sell stocks and buy bonds with $171 billion leaving stocks and over half a trillion going into bonds. In my 30 years of experience, stock markets can be volatile at times, but stock markets usually don’t top when people are nervous. Markets tend to top when …
As I mentioned in the last article, we see limited upside potential for US stocks in 2020. Our estimate of fair value on the Dow Jones Industrial Average for year end 2020 is about 30,000. Could stocks go up beyond our fair value estimate? Yes, that is possible, but we don’t recommend chasing the prices …
Investment markets in the US performed well in 2019, but investing hasn’t been nearly as easy for stock pickers unless you put your money in Apple, Microsoft or Facebook stock. (Apple is up 80% this year which is staggering considering the market value of the company as of December 27th is $1.2trillion – that’s $1 …
Portfolio Insights Financial market commentators seem to change their minds daily about the outlook for the stock market. One day they are excited about stocks and the next they are worried. They offer potential reasons for a looming decline like: Interest Rates The Fed Earnings slowdown the business cycle China the President European slowdown inverted …
Lately, we have seen unprecedented volatility in the US stock market with swings in excess of a thousand points in a couple of days for the Dow Jones Industrial Average and even the first 1,000 point gain in a single day. So, what’s causing all of this? Two things: uncertainty and computers. We’ve covered issues …
The herd is jumping off the cliff A large part of my job as a portfolio manager is to appraise the value of companies. I buy them when I estimate that their stock price is below my appraised value and sell them when they are higher than my appraised value. As you can see from …
Something interesting happened in the stock market last week called ROTATION. We saw the stock market pull back from it’s high, as investors started to wonder if maybe the peak in the market is in. Unemployment is now the lowest it’s been since 1969 which is great, but interest rates are now starting to move …
June 26, 2018 Yesterday, the stock market dropped over 400 points1 at the bottom as the market reacts to: President Trump’s tough stance on China2 There are a couple of things going on here. Trump has threatened to impose tariffs on $200 billion worth of goods coming to the US from China. Part of this …
Today the Dow Jones closed down 666 points or -2.54%.1 You will hear that this decline is the 3rd or 4th largest point drop of all time but in percentage terms, this does not fall in the top 20 according to the Wall Street Journal.2 While today was a large point decline, the drop is …
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